Global Temperature Anomaly vs US CO₂ Emissions per Capita

Global Temperature Anomaly and US CO₂ Emissions per Capita correlate at r = +0.48 over 175 years (1850–2024), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = -0.78. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is 0.48, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes -0.78. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r: +0.48
p-value: < 0.0001
Years compared (n): 175 (1850–2024)
95% confidence interval: 0.36 to 0.59
Correlation with the time trend removed: -0.78

Sources

Global Temperature Anomaly (°C vs 1901–2000): NOAA NCEI. Annual global land and ocean surface temperature departure from the 1901–2000 average (NOAA NCEI).
US CO₂ Emissions per Capita (tonnes): Our World in Data. US CO₂ Emissions per Capita (Our World in Data: CO₂ emissions per capita).

Related pairs

US CO₂ Emissions per Capita vs US CO₂ Emissions per Capita (r = +0.97)
Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) vs Global Temperature Anomaly (r = +0.97)
Global Temperature Anomaly vs US GDP per Capita (r = +0.97)
Global Temperature Anomaly vs US GDP (current US$) (r = +0.96)
Global Temperature Anomaly vs US Population (r = +0.95)
Global Temperature Anomaly vs US Cereal Yield (r = +0.94)

Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.