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Global Temperature Anomaly vs US Fertility Rate

Global Temperature Anomaly and US Fertility Rate correlate at r = -0.58 over 91 years (1933–2023), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = -0.18. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = < 0.0001) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = -0.18). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
-0.58
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
91 (1933–2023)
95% confidence interval
-0.70 to -0.42
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.18

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.