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Global Temperature Anomaly vs US Homicide Rate
Global Temperature Anomaly and US Homicide Rate correlate at r = -0.59 over 31 years (1990–2023), p = 4.4e-4. With the time trend removed, r = +0.22. Likely spurious (shared time trend).
Verdict: Likely spurious (shared time trend). Both series mostly just trend over time. After removing that trend the correlation collapses to 0.22 — the relationship is probably coincidental, not causal.
- Pearson r
- -0.59
- p-value
- 4.4e-4
- Years compared (n)
- 31 (1990–2023)
- 95% confidence interval
- -0.78 to -0.30
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- +0.22
Sources
- Global Temperature Anomaly (°C vs 1901–2000): NOAA NCEI. Annual global land and ocean surface temperature departure from the 1901–2000 average (NOAA NCEI).
- US Homicide Rate (per 100,000 people): Our World in Data. US Homicide Rate (Our World in Data: Homicide rate per 100,000 population).
Related pairs
- Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) vs Global Temperature Anomaly (r = +0.97)
- Global Temperature Anomaly vs US GDP per Capita (r = +0.97)
- Global Temperature Anomaly vs US GDP (current US$) (r = +0.96)
- Global Temperature Anomaly vs US Population (r = +0.95)
- Global Temperature Anomaly vs US Cereal Yield (r = +0.94)
- Global Temperature Anomaly vs Atmospheric Methane (global) (r = +0.94)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.