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Atmospheric Methane (global) vs US Federal Debt Outstanding

Atmospheric Methane (global) and US Federal Debt Outstanding correlate at r = +0.95 over 42 years (1984–2025), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.54. Interpret with caution.

Verdict: Interpret with caution. Much of the apparent link is driven by a shared time trend: r falls from 0.95 to 0.54 once the trend is removed.

Pearson r
+0.95
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
42 (1984–2025)
95% confidence interval
0.91 to 0.97
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.54

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.