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Arctic Sea Ice Extent (September) vs US Infant Mortality

Arctic Sea Ice Extent (September) and US Infant Mortality correlate at r = +0.82 over 46 years (1979–2024), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = -0.20. Likely spurious (shared time trend).

Verdict: Likely spurious (shared time trend). Both series mostly just trend over time. After removing that trend the correlation collapses to -0.20 — the relationship is probably coincidental, not causal.

Pearson r
+0.82
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
46 (1979–2024)
95% confidence interval
0.70 to 0.90
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.20

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.