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Arctic Sea Ice Extent (September) vs US Urban Population

Arctic Sea Ice Extent (September) and US Urban Population correlate at r = -0.84 over 47 years (1979–2025), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = -0.14. Likely spurious (shared time trend).

Verdict: Likely spurious (shared time trend). Both series mostly just trend over time. After removing that trend the correlation collapses to -0.14 — the relationship is probably coincidental, not causal.

Pearson r
-0.84
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
47 (1979–2025)
95% confidence interval
-0.91 to -0.73
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.14

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.