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US Air Passengers Carried vs US Exports

US Air Passengers Carried and US Exports correlate at r = +0.85 over 54 years (1970–2023), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.29. Likely spurious (shared time trend).

Verdict: Likely spurious (shared time trend). Both series mostly just trend over time. After removing that trend the correlation collapses to 0.29 — the relationship is probably coincidental, not causal.

Pearson r
+0.85
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
54 (1970–2023)
95% confidence interval
0.75 to 0.91
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.29

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.