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US Alcohol Consumption vs US Fertility Rate
US Alcohol Consumption and US Fertility Rate correlate at r = -0.77 over 21 years (2000–2020), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.38. Direction flips without the trend.
Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is -0.77, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes 0.38. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.
- Pearson r
- -0.77
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 21 (2000–2020)
- 95% confidence interval
- -0.90 to -0.51
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- +0.38
Sources
- US Alcohol Consumption (litres/person): Our World in Data. US Alcohol Consumption (Our World in Data: Alcohol consumption).
- US Fertility Rate (children per woman): Our World in Data. US Fertility Rate (Our World in Data: Total fertility rate).
Related pairs
- US Alcohol Consumption vs US Median Age (r = +0.94)
- US Alcohol Consumption vs US Marriage Rate (r = -0.94)
- US Alcohol Consumption vs US Health Expenditure (r = +0.93)
- US Alcohol Consumption vs US GDP per Capita (r = +0.93)
- US Alcohol Consumption vs US GDP (current US$) (r = +0.92)
- Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) vs US Alcohol Consumption (r = +0.92)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.