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US Alcohol Consumption vs US Milk Consumption per Person

US Alcohol Consumption and US Milk Consumption per Person correlate at r = -0.69 over 21 years (2000–2020), p = 5.3e-4. With the time trend removed, r = +0.41. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is -0.69, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes 0.41. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r
-0.69
p-value
5.3e-4
Years compared (n)
21 (2000–2020)
95% confidence interval
-0.86 to -0.37
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.41

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.