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US Alcohol Consumption vs US Birth Rate
US Alcohol Consumption and US Birth Rate correlate at r = -0.83 over 21 years (2000–2020), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.37. Direction flips without the trend.
Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is -0.83, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes 0.37. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.
- Pearson r
- -0.83
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 21 (2000–2020)
- 95% confidence interval
- -0.93 to -0.63
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- +0.37
Sources
- US Alcohol Consumption (litres/person): Our World in Data. US Alcohol Consumption (Our World in Data: Alcohol consumption).
- US Birth Rate (per 1,000 people): World Bank. US Birth Rate (World Bank indicator SP.DYN.CBRT.IN).
Related pairs
- Atmospheric Methane (global) vs US Birth Rate (r = -0.95)
- US Alcohol Consumption vs US Median Age (r = +0.94)
- US Alcohol Consumption vs US Marriage Rate (r = -0.94)
- US Adult Obesity vs US Birth Rate (r = -0.93)
- US Alcohol Consumption vs US Health Expenditure (r = +0.93)
- US Alcohol Consumption vs US GDP per Capita (r = +0.93)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.