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US Alcohol Consumption vs US Infant Mortality

US Alcohol Consumption and US Infant Mortality correlate at r = -0.88 over 21 years (2000–2020), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.62. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is -0.88, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes 0.62. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r
-0.88
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
21 (2000–2020)
95% confidence interval
-0.95 to -0.73
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.62

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.