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US CO₂ Emissions per Capita vs US Fertility Rate

US CO₂ Emissions per Capita and US Fertility Rate correlate at r = -0.25 over 91 years (1933–2023), p = 0.016. With the time trend removed, r = -0.03. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = 0.016) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = -0.03). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
-0.25
p-value
0.016
Years compared (n)
91 (1933–2023)
95% confidence interval
-0.43 to -0.05
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.03

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.