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US Fertility Rate vs US Marriage Rate
US Fertility Rate and US Marriage Rate correlate at r = +0.25 over 88 years (1933–2022), p = 0.019. With the time trend removed, r = -0.36. Direction flips without the trend.
Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is 0.25, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes -0.36. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.
- Pearson r
- +0.25
- p-value
- 0.019
- Years compared (n)
- 88 (1933–2022)
- 95% confidence interval
- 0.04 to 0.44
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- -0.36
Sources
- US Fertility Rate (children per woman): Our World in Data. US Fertility Rate (Our World in Data: Total fertility rate).
- US Marriage Rate (per 1,000 people): Our World in Data. US Marriage Rate (Our World in Data: Crude marriage rate).
Related pairs
- US Marriage Rate vs US Adult Obesity (r = -0.98)
- US Marriage Rate vs US Resident Patent Applications (r = -0.95)
- US Marriage Rate vs US Mobile Subscriptions (r = -0.95)
- Atmospheric Methane (global) vs US Marriage Rate (r = -0.95)
- US Marriage Rate vs US Health Expenditure (r = -0.94)
- US Alcohol Consumption vs US Marriage Rate (r = -0.94)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.