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US Fertility Rate vs US Median Age
US Fertility Rate and US Median Age correlate at r = -0.57 over 74 years (1950–2023), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.71. Direction flips without the trend.
Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is -0.57, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes 0.71. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.
- Pearson r
- -0.57
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 74 (1950–2023)
- 95% confidence interval
- -0.70 to -0.39
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- +0.71
Sources
- US Fertility Rate (children per woman): Our World in Data. US Fertility Rate (Our World in Data: Total fertility rate).
- US Median Age (years): Our World in Data. US Median Age (Our World in Data: Median age).
Related pairs
- US Median Age vs US Adult Obesity (r = +0.99)
- US Median Age vs US Population (r = +0.98)
- Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) vs US Median Age (r = +0.97)
- US Median Age vs US Internet Users (r = +0.97)
- US Internet Usage vs US Median Age (r = +0.97)
- US Median Age vs US GDP per Capita (r = +0.97)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.