US Fertility Rate vs US Adult Obesity

US Fertility Rate and US Adult Obesity correlate at r = -0.36 over 44 years (1980–2023), p = 0.015. With the time trend removed, r = +0.73. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is -0.36, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes 0.73. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r: -0.36
p-value: 0.015
Years compared (n): 44 (1980–2023)
95% confidence interval: -0.60 to -0.08
Correlation with the time trend removed: +0.73

Sources

US Fertility Rate (children per woman): Our World in Data. US Fertility Rate (Our World in Data: Total fertility rate).
US Adult Obesity (% of adults): Our World in Data. US Adult Obesity (Our World in Data: Obesity among adults, BMI >= 30 kg/m2 (crude estimate) (%) - Sex: both sexes - Age group: 18+ years of age).

Related pairs

US Adult Obesity vs US Population (r = +1.00)
US Median Age vs US Adult Obesity (r = +0.99)
US Marriage Rate vs US Adult Obesity (r = -0.98)
US Adult Obesity vs US Resident Patent Applications (r = +0.98)
US Adult Obesity vs US Mobile Subscriptions (r = +0.98)
US Adult Obesity vs US Internet Users (r = +0.98)

Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.