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US Fertility Rate vs US Resident Patent Applications

US Fertility Rate and US Resident Patent Applications correlate at r = -0.33 over 42 years (1980–2021), p = 0.034. With the time trend removed, r = +0.06. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = 0.034) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = 0.06). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
-0.33
p-value
0.034
Years compared (n)
42 (1980–2021)
95% confidence interval
-0.57 to -0.03
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.06

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.