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US Fertility Rate vs US Urban Population

US Fertility Rate and US Urban Population correlate at r = -0.61 over 64 years (1960–2023), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.18. Interpret with caution.

Verdict: Interpret with caution. Much of the apparent link is driven by a shared time trend: r falls from -0.61 to 0.18 once the trend is removed.

Pearson r
-0.61
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
64 (1960–2023)
95% confidence interval
-0.74 to -0.43
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.18

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.