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US Homicide Rate vs US Marriage Rate

US Homicide Rate and US Marriage Rate correlate at r = +0.67 over 29 years (1991–2022), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.03. Interpret with caution.

Verdict: Interpret with caution. Much of the apparent link is driven by a shared time trend: r falls from 0.67 to 0.03 once the trend is removed.

Pearson r
+0.67
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
29 (1991–2022)
95% confidence interval
0.41 to 0.83
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.03

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.