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US Homicide Rate vs US CO₂ Emissions per Capita

US Homicide Rate and US CO₂ Emissions per Capita correlate at r = +0.44 over 31 years (1990–2023), p = 0.013. With the time trend removed, r = -0.72. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is 0.44, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes -0.72. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r
+0.44
p-value
0.013
Years compared (n)
31 (1990–2023)
95% confidence interval
0.10 to 0.69
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.72

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.