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US Marriage Rate vs US Imports

US Marriage Rate and US Imports correlate at r = -0.88 over 52 years (1970–2022), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.11. Likely spurious (shared time trend).

Verdict: Likely spurious (shared time trend). Both series mostly just trend over time. After removing that trend the correlation collapses to 0.11 — the relationship is probably coincidental, not causal.

Pearson r
-0.88
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
52 (1970–2022)
95% confidence interval
-0.93 to -0.80
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.11

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.