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US Marriage Rate vs US Tax Revenue

US Marriage Rate and US Tax Revenue correlate at r = +0.35 over 50 years (1972–2022), p = 0.012. With the time trend removed, r = +0.25. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = 0.012) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = 0.25). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
+0.35
p-value
0.012
Years compared (n)
50 (1972–2022)
95% confidence interval
0.08 to 0.58
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.25

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.