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US Median Age vs US Federal Debt Outstanding

US Median Age and US Federal Debt Outstanding correlate at r = +0.86 over 74 years (1950–2023), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.39. Interpret with caution.

Verdict: Interpret with caution. Much of the apparent link is driven by a shared time trend: r falls from 0.86 to 0.39 once the trend is removed.

Pearson r
+0.86
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
74 (1950–2023)
95% confidence interval
0.78 to 0.91
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.39

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.