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US Median Age vs US Birth Rate
US Median Age and US Birth Rate correlate at r = -0.78 over 64 years (1960–2023), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.88. Direction flips without the trend.
Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is -0.78, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes 0.88. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.
- Pearson r
- -0.78
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 64 (1960–2023)
- 95% confidence interval
- -0.86 to -0.66
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- +0.88
Sources
- US Median Age (years): Our World in Data. US Median Age (Our World in Data: Median age).
- US Birth Rate (per 1,000 people): World Bank. US Birth Rate (World Bank indicator SP.DYN.CBRT.IN).
Related pairs
- US Median Age vs US Adult Obesity (r = +0.99)
- US Median Age vs US Population (r = +0.98)
- Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) vs US Median Age (r = +0.97)
- US Median Age vs US Internet Users (r = +0.97)
- US Internet Usage vs US Median Age (r = +0.97)
- US Median Age vs US GDP per Capita (r = +0.97)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.