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US Adult Obesity vs US Secondary School Enrollment

US Adult Obesity and US Secondary School Enrollment correlate at r = +0.61 over 27 years (1980–2022), p = 6.5e-4. With the time trend removed, r = -0.60. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is 0.61, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes -0.60. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r
+0.61
p-value
6.5e-4
Years compared (n)
27 (1980–2022)
95% confidence interval
0.31 to 0.81
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.60

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.