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US Oil Consumption vs US Population Aged 65+

US Oil Consumption and US Population Aged 65+ correlate at r = +0.46 over 61 years (1965–2025), p = 2.1e-4. With the time trend removed, r = -0.41. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is 0.46, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes -0.41. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r
+0.46
p-value
2.1e-4
Years compared (n)
61 (1965–2025)
95% confidence interval
0.23 to 0.64
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.41

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.