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US Federal Debt Outstanding vs US GDP (current US$)
US Federal Debt Outstanding and US GDP (current US$) correlate at r = +0.97 over 66 years (1960–2025), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.95. Holds up after detrending.
Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = < 0.0001) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = 0.95). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.
- Pearson r
- +0.97
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 66 (1960–2025)
- 95% confidence interval
- 0.95 to 0.98
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- +0.95
Sources
- US Federal Debt Outstanding (USD): U.S. Treasury. Total US federal debt outstanding at the end of each fiscal year (U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data).
- US GDP (current US$) (USD): World Bank. US GDP (current US$) (World Bank indicator NY.GDP.MKTP.CD).
Related pairs
- US GDP (current US$) vs US GDP per Capita (r = +1.00)
- US Renewable Energy Share vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.99)
- US Wind Power Generation vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.99)
- Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) vs US GDP (current US$) (r = +0.98)
- Atmospheric Methane (global) vs US GDP (current US$) (r = +0.98)
- US GDP (current US$) vs US Resident Patent Applications (r = +0.97)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.