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US Adolescent Birth Rate vs US Infant Mortality

US Adolescent Birth Rate and US Infant Mortality correlate at r = +0.83 over 65 years (1960–2024), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = -0.31. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is 0.83, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes -0.31. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r
+0.83
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
65 (1960–2024)
95% confidence interval
0.73 to 0.89
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.31

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.