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US Agriculture Value Added vs US Infant Mortality

US Agriculture Value Added and US Infant Mortality correlate at r = +0.58 over 25 years (1997–2021), p = 0.0022. With the time trend removed, r = -0.38. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is 0.58, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes -0.38. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r
+0.58
p-value
0.0022
Years compared (n)
25 (1997–2021)
95% confidence interval
0.24 to 0.79
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.38

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.