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US Birth Rate vs US GDP per Capita
US Birth Rate and US GDP per Capita correlate at r = -0.82 over 65 years (1960–2024), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.34. Direction flips without the trend.
Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is -0.82, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes 0.34. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.
- Pearson r
- -0.82
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 65 (1960–2024)
- 95% confidence interval
- -0.89 to -0.73
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- +0.34
Sources
- US Birth Rate (per 1,000 people): World Bank. US Birth Rate (World Bank indicator SP.DYN.CBRT.IN).
- US GDP per Capita (USD): World Bank. US GDP per Capita (World Bank indicator NY.GDP.PCAP.CD).
Related pairs
- US GDP (current US$) vs US GDP per Capita (r = +1.00)
- Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) vs US GDP per Capita (r = +0.99)
- Atmospheric Methane (global) vs US GDP per Capita (r = +0.98)
- US GDP per Capita vs US Resident Patent Applications (r = +0.97)
- US GDP per Capita vs US Population (r = +0.97)
- US Median Age vs US GDP per Capita (r = +0.97)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.