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US Birth Rate vs US Health Expenditure
US Birth Rate and US Health Expenditure correlate at r = -0.86 over 24 years (2000–2023), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.13. Likely spurious (shared time trend).
Verdict: Likely spurious (shared time trend). Both series mostly just trend over time. After removing that trend the correlation collapses to 0.13 — the relationship is probably coincidental, not causal.
- Pearson r
- -0.86
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 24 (2000–2023)
- 95% confidence interval
- -0.94 to -0.69
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- +0.13
Sources
- US Birth Rate (per 1,000 people): World Bank. US Birth Rate (World Bank indicator SP.DYN.CBRT.IN).
- US Health Expenditure (% of GDP): World Bank. US Health Expenditure (World Bank indicator SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS).
Related pairs
- Atmospheric Methane (global) vs US Birth Rate (r = -0.95)
- US Marriage Rate vs US Health Expenditure (r = -0.94)
- US Energy Use per Capita vs US Health Expenditure (r = -0.94)
- US Adult Obesity vs US Health Expenditure (r = +0.94)
- US CO₂ Emissions per Capita vs US Health Expenditure (r = -0.93)
- US Adult Obesity vs US Birth Rate (r = -0.93)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.