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US Birth Rate vs US Resident Patent Applications

US Birth Rate and US Resident Patent Applications correlate at r = -0.92 over 42 years (1980–2021), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.03. Likely spurious (shared time trend).

Verdict: Likely spurious (shared time trend). Both series mostly just trend over time. After removing that trend the correlation collapses to 0.03 — the relationship is probably coincidental, not causal.

Pearson r
-0.92
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
42 (1980–2021)
95% confidence interval
-0.96 to -0.86
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.03

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.