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US Birth Rate vs US Rural Population

US Birth Rate and US Rural Population correlate at r = +0.85 over 65 years (1960–2024), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = -0.01. Likely spurious (shared time trend).

Verdict: Likely spurious (shared time trend). Both series mostly just trend over time. After removing that trend the correlation collapses to -0.01 — the relationship is probably coincidental, not causal.

Pearson r
+0.85
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
65 (1960–2024)
95% confidence interval
0.76 to 0.90
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.01

Sources

Related pairs

Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.