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US Birth Rate vs US College Enrollment
US Birth Rate and US College Enrollment correlate at r = -0.71 over 39 years (1971–2022), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.59. Direction flips without the trend.
Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is -0.71, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes 0.59. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.
- Pearson r
- -0.71
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 39 (1971–2022)
- 95% confidence interval
- -0.84 to -0.51
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- +0.59
Sources
- US Birth Rate (per 1,000 people): World Bank. US Birth Rate (World Bank indicator SP.DYN.CBRT.IN).
- US College Enrollment (% gross): World Bank. US College Enrollment (World Bank indicator SE.TER.ENRR).
Related pairs
- US Nuclear Power Generation vs US College Enrollment (r = +0.97)
- US Median Age vs US College Enrollment (r = +0.96)
- Atmospheric Methane (global) vs US Birth Rate (r = -0.95)
- US Life Expectancy vs US College Enrollment (r = +0.94)
- US Infant Mortality vs US College Enrollment (r = -0.94)
- US Population vs US College Enrollment (r = +0.93)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.