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US CO₂ Emissions per Capita vs US Urban Population

US CO₂ Emissions per Capita and US Urban Population correlate at r = -0.71 over 55 years (1970–2024), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.76. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is -0.71, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes 0.76. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r
-0.71
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
55 (1970–2024)
95% confidence interval
-0.82 to -0.55
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.76

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.