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US Death Rate vs US GDP per Capita

US Death Rate and US GDP per Capita correlate at r = -0.25 over 65 years (1960–2024), p = 0.046. With the time trend removed, r = +0.62. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is -0.25, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes 0.62. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r
-0.25
p-value
0.046
Years compared (n)
65 (1960–2024)
95% confidence interval
-0.46 to -0.00
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.62

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.