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US GDP per Capita vs US Bank Lending Interest Rate

US GDP per Capita and US Bank Lending Interest Rate correlate at r = -0.42 over 62 years (1960–2021), p = 6.9e-4. With the time trend removed, r = -0.61. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = 6.9e-4) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = -0.61). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
-0.42
p-value
6.9e-4
Years compared (n)
62 (1960–2021)
95% confidence interval
-0.61 to -0.19
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.61

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.