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US Inflation Rate vs US Net Migration

US Inflation Rate and US Net Migration correlate at r = -0.41 over 65 years (1960–2024), p = 8.1e-4. With the time trend removed, r = -0.32. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = 8.1e-4) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = -0.32). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
-0.41
p-value
8.1e-4
Years compared (n)
65 (1960–2024)
95% confidence interval
-0.59 to -0.18
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.32

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.