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US Military Expenditure vs US Urban Population

US Military Expenditure and US Urban Population correlate at r = -0.85 over 65 years (1960–2024), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = -0.17. Likely spurious (shared time trend).

Verdict: Likely spurious (shared time trend). Both series mostly just trend over time. After removing that trend the correlation collapses to -0.17 — the relationship is probably coincidental, not causal.

Pearson r
-0.85
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
65 (1960–2024)
95% confidence interval
-0.91 to -0.77
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.17

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.