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US Net Migration vs US Population Aged 65+

US Net Migration and US Population Aged 65+ correlate at r = +0.58 over 66 years (1960–2025), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = -0.52. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is 0.58, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes -0.52. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r
+0.58
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
66 (1960–2025)
95% confidence interval
0.40 to 0.72
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.52

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.