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US Net Migration vs US Tax Revenue

US Net Migration and US Tax Revenue correlate at r = -0.29 over 53 years (1972–2024), p = 0.035. With the time trend removed, r = -0.12. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = 0.035) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = -0.12). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
-0.29
p-value
0.035
Years compared (n)
53 (1972–2024)
95% confidence interval
-0.52 to -0.02
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.12

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.