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New York Average Temperature vs US Adolescent Birth Rate
New York Average Temperature and US Adolescent Birth Rate correlate at r = -0.70 over 65 years (1960–2024), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = -0.10. Likely spurious (shared time trend).
Verdict: Likely spurious (shared time trend). Both series mostly just trend over time. After removing that trend the correlation collapses to -0.10 — the relationship is probably coincidental, not causal.
- Pearson r
- -0.70
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 65 (1960–2024)
- 95% confidence interval
- -0.81 to -0.55
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- -0.10
Sources
- New York Average Temperature (°C): Open-Meteo (ERA5). Annual mean 2m air temperature for New York from the ERA5 reanalysis.
- US Adolescent Birth Rate (per 1,000 women 15–19): World Bank. US Adolescent Birth Rate (World Bank indicator SP.ADO.TFRT).
Related pairs
- Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) vs US Adolescent Birth Rate (r = -0.95)
- US Adolescent Birth Rate vs US Cereal Yield (r = -0.95)
- US Adolescent Birth Rate vs US Forest Area (r = -0.94)
- US Adolescent Birth Rate vs US Population (r = -0.94)
- US Adolescent Birth Rate vs US GDP per Capita (r = -0.94)
- US Adolescent Birth Rate vs US GDP (current US$) (r = -0.94)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.