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US Dollar to Euro vs US Tax Revenue

US Dollar to Euro and US Tax Revenue correlate at r = +0.54 over 26 years (1999–2024), p = 0.0046. With the time trend removed, r = +0.54. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = 0.0046) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = 0.54). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
+0.54
p-value
0.0046
Years compared (n)
26 (1999–2024)
95% confidence interval
0.19 to 0.77
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.54

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.