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US Dollar to British Pound vs US Fertility Rate

US Dollar to British Pound and US Fertility Rate correlate at r = -0.86 over 25 years (1999–2023), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = -0.78. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = < 0.0001) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = -0.78). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
-0.86
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
25 (1999–2023)
95% confidence interval
-0.94 to -0.71
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.78

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.