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US Dollar to Japanese Yen vs US Military Expenditure

US Dollar to Japanese Yen and US Military Expenditure correlate at r = -0.68 over 26 years (1999–2024), p = 1.3e-4. With the time trend removed, r = -0.67. Holds up after detrending.

Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = 1.3e-4) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = -0.67). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.

Pearson r
-0.68
p-value
1.3e-4
Years compared (n)
26 (1999–2024)
95% confidence interval
-0.85 to -0.40
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.67

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.