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US Birth Rate vs US Military Expenditure

US Birth Rate and US Military Expenditure correlate at r = +0.87 over 65 years (1960–2024), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.43. Interpret with caution.

Verdict: Interpret with caution. Much of the apparent link is driven by a shared time trend: r falls from 0.87 to 0.43 once the trend is removed.

Pearson r
+0.87
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
65 (1960–2024)
95% confidence interval
0.79 to 0.92
Correlation with the time trend removed
+0.43

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.