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Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) vs US Electricity Generation

Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) and US Electricity Generation correlate at r = +0.87 over 41 years (1985–2025), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = -0.77. Direction flips without the trend.

Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is 0.87, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes -0.77. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.

Pearson r
+0.87
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
41 (1985–2025)
95% confidence interval
0.77 to 0.93
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.77

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.