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Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) vs US Fertility Rate
Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) and US Fertility Rate correlate at r = -0.62 over 65 years (1959–2023), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.62. Direction flips without the trend.
Verdict: Direction flips without the trend. The raw correlation is -0.62, but once each series' time trend is removed it becomes 0.62. The year-to-year movements run the opposite way to the long-run trends, so the headline number is misleading.
- Pearson r
- -0.62
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 65 (1959–2023)
- 95% confidence interval
- -0.75 to -0.44
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- +0.62
Sources
- Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) (ppm): NOAA GML. Annual mean atmospheric carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (NOAA GML).
- US Fertility Rate (children per woman): Our World in Data. US Fertility Rate (Our World in Data: Total fertility rate).
Related pairs
- Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) vs US GDP per Capita (r = +0.99)
- Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) vs US Population (r = +0.99)
- Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) vs US GDP (current US$) (r = +0.98)
- Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) vs US Cereal Yield (r = +0.98)
- Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) vs Atmospheric Methane (global) (r = +0.98)
- Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) vs US Adult Obesity (r = +0.98)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.