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Global Temperature Anomaly vs US Federal Debt Outstanding
Global Temperature Anomaly and US Federal Debt Outstanding correlate at r = +0.86 over 176 years (1850–2025), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = +0.77. Holds up after detrending.
Verdict: Holds up after detrending. Statistically significant (p = < 0.0001) and the association survives trend removal (detrended r = 0.77). Correlation still isn't causation, but this one isn't an obvious artifact.
- Pearson r
- +0.86
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 176 (1850–2025)
- 95% confidence interval
- 0.81 to 0.89
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- +0.77
Sources
- Global Temperature Anomaly (°C vs 1901–2000): NOAA NCEI. Annual global land and ocean surface temperature departure from the 1901–2000 average (NOAA NCEI).
- US Federal Debt Outstanding (USD): U.S. Treasury. Total US federal debt outstanding at the end of each fiscal year (U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data).
Related pairs
- US Renewable Energy Share vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.99)
- US Wind Power Generation vs US Federal Debt Outstanding (r = +0.99)
- US Federal Debt Outstanding vs US GDP (current US$) (r = +0.97)
- Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) vs Global Temperature Anomaly (r = +0.97)
- Global Temperature Anomaly vs US GDP per Capita (r = +0.97)
- Global Temperature Anomaly vs US GDP (current US$) (r = +0.96)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.