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Global Temperature Anomaly vs US Adolescent Birth Rate
Global Temperature Anomaly and US Adolescent Birth Rate correlate at r = -0.91 over 65 years (1960–2024), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = -0.18. Likely spurious (shared time trend).
Verdict: Likely spurious (shared time trend). Both series mostly just trend over time. After removing that trend the correlation collapses to -0.18 — the relationship is probably coincidental, not causal.
- Pearson r
- -0.91
- p-value
- < 0.0001
- Years compared (n)
- 65 (1960–2024)
- 95% confidence interval
- -0.95 to -0.86
- Correlation with the time trend removed
- -0.18
Sources
- Global Temperature Anomaly (°C vs 1901–2000): NOAA NCEI. Annual global land and ocean surface temperature departure from the 1901–2000 average (NOAA NCEI).
- US Adolescent Birth Rate (per 1,000 women 15–19): World Bank. US Adolescent Birth Rate (World Bank indicator SP.ADO.TFRT).
Related pairs
- Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) vs Global Temperature Anomaly (r = +0.97)
- Global Temperature Anomaly vs US GDP per Capita (r = +0.97)
- Global Temperature Anomaly vs US GDP (current US$) (r = +0.96)
- Atmospheric CO₂ (Mauna Loa) vs US Adolescent Birth Rate (r = -0.95)
- Global Temperature Anomaly vs US Population (r = +0.95)
- US Adolescent Birth Rate vs US Cereal Yield (r = -0.95)
Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.