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Atmospheric Methane (global) vs US Air Passengers Carried

Atmospheric Methane (global) and US Air Passengers Carried correlate at r = +0.80 over 40 years (1984–2023), p < 0.0001. With the time trend removed, r = -0.09. Likely spurious (shared time trend).

Verdict: Likely spurious (shared time trend). Both series mostly just trend over time. After removing that trend the correlation collapses to -0.09 — the relationship is probably coincidental, not causal.

Pearson r
+0.80
p-value
< 0.0001
Years compared (n)
40 (1984–2023)
95% confidence interval
0.65 to 0.89
Correlation with the time trend removed
-0.09

Sources

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Correlation does not imply causation. How the verdict is worked out.